As the end of the year slowly creeps towards us, the time has come to take a look back at the last year while looking forward to the New Year.

Before publishing my predictions for 2012, let’s see how the 2011 predictions did:

Triggit 2011 Predictions:

Without a doubt 2010 was a hell of a year for all of us here at Triggit. Not only has our space grown exponentially, but so have we. This year we grew over 2000% in revenue, our team tripled, and the number of RTB impressions that pass through our system grew by more than 15x. Needless to say, it seems like we are doing something right.

But the past is behind us, and the really exciting stuff is yet to come. Here are our 2011 predictions:

2011 will be the year when RTB and exchange trading crosses the tipping point and becomes the most important channel for buying standardized display media. By the end of next year we will look back on the antiquated ways we used to buy media and laugh.

• I was right on with this one.  There is no doubt the tipping point for RTB and automated media trading was crossed in a big way in 2011.  While at the beginning of the year things were uncertain and many looked at the space questioningly, now there is really no doubt that RTB is here for keeps.

Average CPMs on the exchanges will cross $3.00 and keep growing. This will have lots of follow on effects, but mostly it will mean more and better inventory will be cleared in the exchanges, and it will continue to fuel the network effects we are currently enjoying.

• I was half right on this one.  Average CPMs on the exchanges have certainly continued to rise, and we often see averages of over $3.00.   But the prices have not gone up as much as I anticipated as instead more inventory has moved into the exchanges and diluted cpm increases.  Either way, it is good for the space, but the low average CPMs on the exchanges will remain until we move more of the display spend into the space.

Mainstream ad networks will find it harder and harder to source inventory directly from publishers. As a result, the companies currently in the network business will take a variety of strategic directions such as becoming video networks, rep firms for custom integrations, agencies or simply shutter their businesses. One strategy some will try is to become a DSP, yet they will find this very tough sledding as technology is a very hard thing to become competitive in when you are two years late to the game.

• I absolutely nailed this one.  Ad Networks spent 2011 juking and jiving to escape the end of that business model.  Some diversified into completely new business as Specific Media did with its Myspace purchase.   Some bought video, mobile or retargeting assets to diversify (or in the case of Valueclick all of the above).   Some simply faded away or shut down their ad network business as most of the ad networks outside the top 25 did.  Some of the most intrepid of the bunch have tried to join the innovation cycle as we saw Collective do on the buy side and Casale do on the sell side.  And the smartest of the bunch simply sold at a premium and got out before it was too late as our friends at Interclick did.  2011 was not a good year to be an ad network.

Most of the ad agencies will continue to make short-term decisions around technology and will suffer in the long term as technology companies increasingly threaten their franchises. One or two of them might bite the bullet and invest for the long run but no one is holding their breath.

• Yep, the agencies are continuing to think like agencies—no surprises here.  Yet while they haven’t invested in technology, agency trading desks have demonstrated remarkable growth and power in the new model.  I certainly underestimated how effective they would be in forcing their holding companies’ sister agencies to abdicate media buying responsibility and simply hand over their clients’ media dollars.

2011 will be the year that people start to realize that RTB is really all about making IP TV the most efficient and effective advertising medium ever built. Most likely, no one but Google will do anything about it. Maybe, old media will start to recognize the threat but it is hard to believe they will be able to respond quickly enough.

• I was a little early on this.  2011 saw significant growth in RTB for video, but it is still very early days.  The old guard has certainly not woken up to the danger that is around the corner.  Maybe 2012 will be the year?

Yahoo will realize that they can’t wait any longer as the market passes them by and they will roll out real RTB.

• Yep, Yahoo did roll out real RTB in 2011.  Then they turned around and shot themselves in both feet as they demanded direct seat licenses for buyers on their exchange.  They are finding themselves stuck in an innovator’s dilemma with their premium-pricing model under attack from the exchanges, and even as they want to innovate they seem to simply spin in circles.  Tough spot.

Microsoft will realize that in their focus on search over the last couple years they let Google steal a march on them in display. Microsoft will respond, most likely by buying their way into our space.

• Huge miss.  I think Microsoft has simply given up trying to compete with Google.

Someone (hopefully John Ebbert) will start a conference for around ad exchanges. Please. Pretty please.

• Missed this one too.  While the folks at Digiday have done some great things with their conferences, there still isn’t a good ad exchange conference.

Congress will get tied in knots and do nothing but continue to scare us.

• Yep. They did nothing, yet we all continue to be scared.   Watching the current testimony about SOPA terrifies me.  The thought of Congress writing regulations for the Internet is like thinking of a 3 year old trying to fix a vintage Ferrari.  Ouch.

Companies like Akamai, Adobe, IBM, Accenture, Amazon, Epsilon, Ebay, Axciom, SAP, Oracle, Salesforce and others will realize that the $50 billion media market is up for grabs by smart technology companies. A number of them will make moves in our space.

• Adobe, Google, Ebay, SAP, Donovan Data, Hearst and others made big moves in our space in the last year.  The big boys and girls are getting into the middle of it now.

We will all continue to have a great time, there is nothing as fun as a space growing as quickly as ours is.

• 2011 was a blast.  Nothing like exponential growth to make everyone happy.

Happy Holidays from all of us here at Triggit!